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Monday, February 19, 2024

S&P 500 Hits All-Time Excessive in Historic Bull Run


What You Have to Know

  • The benchmark topped 4,800 on Friday.
  • Traders are reverting to proudly owning progress, expertise and the “AI bubble” because the 10-year Treasury yield settles into a variety of three.75% to 4.25%, stated BofA’s Michael Hartnett.
  • Markets are overpricing the tempo and quantity of Fed-rate cuts as they overlook stubbornly excessive inflation, warns economist Mohamed El-Erian.

Wall Road is ending the week on a optimistic word, with shares hitting an intraday report on hypothesis the Federal Reserve will begin slicing charges this yr — bolstering the outlook for Company America.

One other rally within the S&P 500’s most-influential group — expertise — put the gauge on observe to change into the final of the three main U.S. benchmarks to shut at an all-time excessive.

Fueled by hopes the artificial-intelligence increase will preserve powering the market larger, the benchmark topped 4,800 on Friday — defying considerations that the rally stays concentrated in a narrower group of shares. (It traded close to 4,836 as of two:40 p.m. in New York.)

Equities pushed larger on Friday as a drop in Treasury volatility continued to bode effectively for risk-taking. Additionally serving to sentiment was a report seen by many as “Fed-friendly,” exhibiting a mixture of excessive shopper confidence and decrease inflation expectations.

“General, it was an encouraging spherical of knowledge from the Fed’s perspective,” stated Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.

The S&P 500 added 1%, erasing this week’s losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed as chipmakers as soon as once more led features, with Texas Devices Inc. up 3.5% and Superior Micro Gadgets Inc. heading towards a report.

Megacaps additionally pushed larger, although Tesla Inc. struggled. Treasury 10-year yields had been little modified. The identical group of corporations that led a stellar run in shares final yr is as soon as once more fueling features in 2024.

Up to now in January, Nvidia Corp., Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc. — all a part of the “Magnificent Seven” — are the largest level gainers within the S&P 500. Meantime, semiconductor shares acquired a lift this week from a bullish forecast Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which bolstered prospects for the tech business in 2024.

‘AI Bubble’ Is Again

Traders are reverting to proudly owning progress, expertise and the “AI bubble” because the 10-year Treasury yield settles into a variety of three.75% to 4.25%, in keeping with Financial institution of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.

Whereas U.S. shares noticed redemptions at $4.3 billion within the week by means of Jan. 17, tech-stock funds noticed the largest two-week influx since August at $4 billion, BofA stated, citing EPFR International information.

“Backside line, we’re off the bullish boil and the boat is much less full, but it surely’s nonetheless leaning firmly optimistic,” stated Peter Boockvar, writer of the Boock Report.

Historical past sides with additional features forward. The S&P 500 went 512 buying and selling days with no report by means of Thursday, which ranks because the sixth-longest streak since 1928, in keeping with Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Analysis.

One yr after hitting new highs, the index has risen 13 out of 14 instances by a median of 13% in that span.

The mixture of better-than-expected progress and a significant enchancment in inflation — which provides the Fed flexibility to chop rates of interest — is giving UBS’s Chief Funding Workplace better conviction in its base case for an financial mushy touchdown.

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1 COMMENT

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